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(S) Fidel Castro: Alive, But Not Quite Kicking
FROM:
Deputy SINIO for Latin America (S17)
Run Date: 12/01/2006
(S) The Fidel era in Cuba appears to be coming to an end.
(S) Rumors about the death of Fidel Castro are nothing new, but following his late July 2006
emergency surgery and "temporary" transfer of power to his brother Raúl, such rumors are
likely to be taken more seriously. Fidel Castro's unexpected 28 October television appearance
negated yet another one of those rumors. Images of Fidel reading the day's newspapers and
later gently shuffling his feet with his arms swinging in an uncoordinated motion, may have
unintentionally served as more than a simple proof-of-life. When compared to previous postsurgery video and photos, this latest footage does show a livelier Fidel, but it also depicts a frail
80-year-old man whose days as the charismatic ruler of Cuba are basically over.
(U) Fidel Castro and his brother Raul (Jane's)
(U//FOUO) In late July 2006, Cuban President Fidel Castro underwent emergency surgery to
control gastro-intestinal bleeding following a trip to Argentina. Based on the analysis of photos
and video released since the operation, U.S. officials believe that Fidel is suffering from cancer of
the stomach, colon or pancreas and estimate that he has 3 to 8 months to live without
chemotherapy and possibly up to 18 months with chemotherapy.
(S) Since the surgery, Fidel has postponed his 80th birthday celebration and was noticeably
absent from the Non-Aligned Movement Summit held in Havana in mid-September and the
Ibero-American Summit held in Montevideo in early November; two relatively high-profile
events a healthier Fidel would have likely used to promote his ideology and criticize U.S. policy.
Cuba's Foreign Minister, Felipe Perez Roque, recently retracted a prediction that Fidel would
return to power in early December.
(S) Time and time again Fidel Castro has defied rumors about his death. While this latest video
is indeed proof that Fidel is still alive, it is also strong evidence that he no longer has the
physical strength or ability to return as the ruler of Cuba. Fidel Castro watchers are now focusing
on December 2nd, the date of his belated 80th birthday celebration. Another postponement or
failure by Fidel to attend this event will further support the argument that the Fidel era is over.
(U//FOUO) Readers: Do you have a comment on this topic? If so, post it on the SID today blog
"(U//FOUO) SIDtoday articles may not be republished or reposted outside NSANet
without the consent of S0121 (DL sid_comms)."
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DERIVED FROM: NSA/CSSM 1-52, DATED 08 JAN 2007 DECLASSIFY ON: 20320108